NATURAL GAS FORECASTS IN NEW YEAR

Natural gas on MCX settled up 2.87% at 265.4 on forecasts for a colder start to the new year than previously expected, reviving concerns there may not be enough fuel in storage for the winter heating season. Meteorologists predicted the weather would turn near normal to a little colder than normal through the first week of January after remaining warmer than usual until Dec. 28. Warm weather so far this month has allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual so far in December. However, the coming cold will boost heating demand and likely stop utilities from cutting the vast storage deficit in early January.

Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 16% compared with the previous report week, according to data from the EIA. Stockpiles are now 21 percent below normal for this time of year and at their lowest in 16 years. Since early November, the combination of changing weather forecasts and low stockpiles has kept futures volatility at its highest in years. With the weather turning seasonally colder after the U.S. Christmas holiday, Refinitiv projected gas demand in the Lower 48 states would rise to 105.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) next week and 115.8 bcfd during the first week of the new year, up from 101.0 bcfd this week. Gas output in the Lower 48 has averaged a near record high of 87.3 bcfd in the past 30 days.

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 14.16% to settled at 2104 while prices up 7.4 rupees, now Natural gas is getting support at 256.2 and below same could see a test of 247 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 271, a move above could see prices testing 276.6.

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GLANCE AT INFRA STOCKS

Infrastructure and construction sector remain top in the segment that performs well in industrial growth in October. The growth in these two segments has remained in the range of 5-8 per cent from October 2017. This momentum of strong growth is likely to be intact, because the order book of companies is strong and the implementation is improving. From March to the quarter, the record levels of the existing and upcoming orders for major companies have become positive for Infrastructure shares. But still the stock prices are down. Financial arrangements by the companies for the projects achieved have remained consistently challenging, as loan offers by banks remained strict. Especially due to their trapped debt, the situation for public sector banks is risky. With the return of interest rate cycle, market concerns have increased due to project cost and working capital.

Allara Capital's analysts say that due to the recent fall in infrastructure shares, strict cash position and limited debt allocation for projects, some companies have a good opportunity to invest. Companies with good quality balance sheets have been successful in raising loans for new projects. Regardless of the relatively weak quarter of the season, many companies have performed better than the projections. Analysts say that the initial signs of improvement in capital expenditure and the comments of management suggest that the speed of execution will remain intact. Elara's favorite shares include PNC Infratech, Ashoka Buildcon, NCC and PSP Projects. 

Although the flow of order flows may slow down, but analysts say that after a huge drop in share prices, many concerns are added to the stock. Strong implementation is likely to maintain the pace while strong order book will also provide great relief. Road contracts contracts reached new height (17,000 kilometers) in 2017-18. Indian National Highway Authority (NHAI) has so far issued contracts of 7400 km (1.2 million), which means that the revenue potential for construction companies remains strong. The implementation of trust is also shown with the latest figures of ICRA. According to the rating agency, implementation in the financial year 2018 increased with an annual rate of 27 percent, 017 km which was 1500 kilometers in FY15. The actual implementation of NHAI during the first half of this financial year is estimated at 1300-1400 kilometers. Since the implementation in the first half is often weak due to monsoon, but ICRA has estimated 3800-4000 km of implementation in the context of the whole year, which is 33-37% less than the target of 6,000 km of FY2019. 

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सोना और चांदी में बढ़त

स्थानीय आभूषण विनिर्माताओं की मांग बढ़ने तथा सकारात्मक वैश्विक रुख से दिल्ली सर्राफा बाजार में सोने की कीमतों में शुक्रवार को लगातार दूसरे दिन तेजी रही। सोना 230 रुपये की बढ़त के साथ 32,230 रुपये प्रति दस ग्राम पर पहुंच गया। औद्योगिक इकाइयों तथा सिक्का विनिर्माताओं की ताजा लिवाली से चांदी भी 250 रुपये की बढ़त के साथ 38,000 रुपये प्रति किलोग्राम पर पहुंच गई। कारोबारियों ने कहा कि स्थानीय जौहरियों तथा सकारात्मक वैश्विक रुख से बहुमूल्य धातुओं की कीमतों में तेजी आई।

वैश्विक स्तर पर न्यूयॉर्क में सोना बढ़त के साथ 1,259.12 डॉलर प्रति औंस तथा चांदी भी लाभ के साथ 14.72 डॉलर प्रति औंस पर चल रही थी। दिल्ली सर्राफा बाजार में सोना 99.9 प्रतिशत और 99.5 प्रतिशत शुद्धता 230-230 रुपये की बढ़त के साथ क्रमश: 32,230 रुपये और 32,080 रुपये प्रति इस ग्राम पर पहुंच गया।

आठ ग्राम की गिन्नी 25,000 रुपये प्रति इकाई पर टिकी रही। सोने की तर्ज पर चांदी हाजिर 250 रुपये की बढ़त के साथ 38,000 रुपये प्रति किलोग्राम तथा साप्ताहिक डिलिवरी 236 रुपये की बढ़त के साथ 37,494 रुपये प्रति किलोग्राम पर पहुंच गई। चांदी सिक्का लिवाल 74,000 रुपये तथा बिकवाल 75,000 रुपये प्रति सैकड़ा पर कायम रहा।

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आज का बाजार

पिछले कई कारोबारी सत्र से बाजार में जारी तेजी आज थम गई। गुरुवार को बंबई स्टॉक एक्सचेंज (बीएसई) का सेंसेक्स 52.66 अंक या 0.14 प्रतिशत टूटकर 36,431.67 के स्तर पर बंद हुआ। दूसरी ओर नैशनल स्टॉक एक्सचेंज (एनएसई) का निफ्टी 15.60 अंक या 0.14 फीसदी फिसलकर 10,951.70 के स्तर पर बंद हुआ। बुधवार को सेंसेक्स 137.25 अंक या 0.38 प्रतिशत मजबूत होकर 36,484.33 के स्तर पर बंद हुआ था। वहीं निफ्टी 58.60 अंक या 0.54 प्रतिशत उछलकर 10,967.30 के स्तर पर बंद हुआ था। 

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Nifty Closes near 10,900 above resistance of 10,800

At the close, the Sensex was up 307.14 points at 36,270.07, while Nifty was up 82.90 points at 10,888.40. About 1400 shares have advanced, 1192 shares declined, and 150 shares are unchanged. 

Power Grid Corp, Tata Motors, HDFC, Coal India and Vedanta are the top gainers on the Sensex, while Kotak Mahindra Bank, Infosys, Bharti Airtel, Hero Motocorp and L&T are among major losers.

All the sectoral indices ended in green led by metal (up 2 percent) and energy stocks (up 1.5 percent) followed by auto, bank, infra and pharma space.

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